Almost every bettor has at some point looked for information on how to beat the bookies and whether it is even possible. In this article, we try to answer this basic betting question.
How to Beat the Bookies?
Is it possible to beat the sportsbook in the long term and achieve growing profits? (source: pixabay.com)
Finishing last month in the black does not make you a profitable bettor. Not even being up after three months of betting makes you a profitable bettor. What will make you a successful, long-term profitable bettor is betting odds with a positive expected value—where your probability of winning is higher than the posted odds imply. In principle, you must show better judgment than the bookmakers. But is there another way? We’ll try to answer that in this article.
Best sportsbooks
Value betting
The most effective and at the same time the most demanding way to beat a sportsbook regularly is the “magical” value betting. Although this term is now known by virtually the entire betting community, and many bettors will tell you their bets have value, it’s rarely true. They’re not necessarily lying to you; they’ve simply convinced themselves that spotting value odds isn’t such a big deal. You can find more details about value betting in the linked article.
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Value betting |
An alternative approach to value betting
Notice that the odds differ for the same event across the spectrum of sportsbooks. Why is that? It depends on several factors—margin, odds providers, bookmaker interventions, speed of drops, etc. While on the most popular markets with massive global handle, such as betting on the result of a football World Cup final, you won’t see huge differences (margin matters too, of course), on lower-handle markets the differences can be huge. Sure betting is built on this, too.
But we’re aiming elsewhere. There are significant differences between sportsbooks: while most focus on recreational bettors and limit winners, there are exceptions that don’t fear successful bettors and actually use them to their advantage. A good example is Pinnacle (their odds are offered by the broker Sportmarket).
You can leverage these pro bookmakers by looking for significant odds differences. If, for example, Pinnacle offers odds of 2.50 on the home win two hours before kick-off in a Champions League match between Manchester Utd. and Bayern, while another sportsbook offers 2.80, it’s likely that 2.80 is a value price.
How is that possible? If we start from the premise that Pinnacle generally has a lower margin than recreational sportsbooks and its odds are on average “closest to reality,” i.e., the implied probability approaches the fair price, then it’s likely the recreational bookmaker misjudged the outcome probabilities and offered you a value price.
Unfortunately, this approach cannot be generalized. It depends on many factors, such as the sport, markets, overall handle on the match, how much time remains until kick-off, etc. While comparison between Pinnacle and recreational books can be a good compass for finding value on major markets in top football, tennis or American leagues (NBA, NFL, NBA, MLB), it may not hold for small-handle markets or minor sports!
Sure betting
A much simpler method to achieve consistent profits is arbitrage betting, a.k.a. sure betting. The principle of arbitrage is to bet the differences in odds that occur across sportsbooks. Imagine a match between two tennis players. Sportsbook A posts 2.25 on the first player to win, while Sportsbook B posts 2.10 on the second player to win.
We plug the posted odds into a surebet calculator and find that we’ll make 8.62% on total stake. If we invest a total of €200 into this surebet, we’ll earn approx. €15 with the correct stake split (the surebet calculator helps with that), regardless of which player wins.
Already seeing yourself on a yacht thanks to sure betting? Cool off—if it were as easy in practice as on paper, sportsbooks would go bankrupt and there would be millions of successful bettors. This method has its flaws. You have to reckon with account limits, fast drops, rejected bets, etc. You’ll find more details about sure betting in the linked article.
Beware of live betting
Live bets are very popular among bettors and may seem at first glance like the perfect opportunity to react instantly to what’s happening in a match and exploit constantly changing odds. However, sportsbooks use sophisticated algorithms that react very quickly to any situation in the game and usually set prices with a significant margin, which can be disadvantageous for bettors.
Another major risk is betting based on current emotions. Under pressure, bettors make hasty decisions and start eating into their set bankroll. Live betting is often a trap that usually does not lead to long-term profits—unless you have perfect discipline or some specific information the sportsbook might not know.
Don’t be fooled by fake „experts“
The internet brings not only new ways to bet smartly, but unfortunately also ways to become a victim of fraud. One common practice is so-called “betting experts” and fake advisory services that promise guaranteed tips in exchange for a monthly subscription or a one-off fee. These people often present themselves as professionals and claim to have access to “insider information,” but in most cases it’s pure fraud.
The tips they provide are not verified, do not stem from real analysis, and have nothing to do with the strategies described above—such as sure betting or value betting. We don’t want to tar everyone with the same brush, but with these “advisors” caution is more than justified. If you really want to improve at betting, stick to proven and transparent paths that keep control in your own hands.
Frequently asked questions
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